Revista Recursos Hídricos

DOI:10.5894/rh35n2-8
Este artigo foi apresentado no 12º Congresso da Água e selecionado para submissão e possível publicação na Recursos Hídricos, tendo sido aceite pela Comissão de Editores Científicos Associados em 30 de abril de 2014. Este artigo é parte integrante da Revista Recursos Hídricos , Vol. 35, Nº 2, 89-97, novembro de 2014. 

Métodos de avaliação de secas para apoio à gestão de recursos hídricos

Drought assessment methods for support of water resources management

Eduardo VIVAS¹

---

1 - Professor Adjunto Convidado, Instituto Superior de Engenharia do Porto, Rua Dr. António Bernardino de Almeida, 431, 4200-072 Porto, Telefone: +351 22 83 40 500, Fax: +351 22 83 21 159, email: [email protected]

---

RESUMO
A ocorrência de impactos de seca muito significativos, em regiões como o sul da Europa, deve-se não só às características naturais do clima, mas também à intensificação da utilização da água (potenciando problemas de escassez).
Porém, a análise dos impactos de seca é dificultada pela variabilidade dos mesmos, no espaço e no tempo, uma vez que cada região apresenta características únicas de utilizações, infraestruturas, organização social e política, etc. Como tal, a gestão de secas deverá ser enquadrada no âmbito da análise e gestão de risco, devidamente moldada às vulnerabilidades da região.
Nesse contexto, apresenta-se uma análise comparativa de alguns dos principais métodos de avaliação de secas disponíveis para apoio à gestão de recursos hídricos, nomeadamente: (i) a utilização de um índice de seca único, (ii) a consideração simultânea de múltiplos índices de seca e (iii) o recurso à avaliação socioeconómica de potenciais impactos de seca.

Palavras-chave: avaliação e gestão de secas, índices de seca, índices múltiplos, avaliação socioeconómica de impactos.

ABSTRACT
The occurrence of very significant drought effects in regions as Southern Europe is a consequence of the natural climate characteristics, but also of the intensification of water uses (potentiating water scarcity problems).
However, the assessment of drought impacts is aggravated by the temporal and spatial variability of those effects, since each region has unique characteristics of water uses, infrastructures, social and political organization, etc. Therefore, the drought management should be framed under the risk assessment and management approach, taking into account the existing regional vulnerabilities.
Thus, it is herein presented a comparative analysis of some of the main drought assessment methods available for support of water resources management, namely: (i) the assessment through a single drought index, (ii) the use of multiple drought indices and (iii) the use of the socioeconomic assessment of potential drought effects.

Keywords: drought assessment and management, drought indices, multiple indices, socioeconomic assessment of drought impacts.

 

Batista, S., Gomes, F., Nisa, A., Mendes, A., Maia, R., Serralheiro, R., Carvalho, M., Vivas, E., Toureiro, C., (2012). O Sistema de Previsão e Gestão de Secas, atas do 11º Congresso da Água, Porto, 6 a 8 de fevereiro de 2012, APRH.

Changnon, S., Pielke, R., Changnon, D., Sylves, R., Pulwarty, R. (2000). Human factors explain the increased losses from weather and climate extremes, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 81, nº3, pp-437-442.

DG Env EC (2007). Water Scarcity & Droughts – In-depth assessment, Second Interim Report, Directorate General Environment, European Commission, Bruxelas.

DG Env EC (2007a). Drought Management Plan Report – Including Agricultural, Drought Indicators and Climate Change Aspects, Water Scarcity and Droughts Experts Network, Directorate General Environment, European Commission, Bruxelas.

DGA (2005). Guía para la redacción de Planes Especiales de Sequia, Dirección General del Agua, Ministerio de Medio Ambiente, Espanha.
Ding, Y., Hayes, M., Wildham, M. (2010). Measuring Economic Impacts of Drought: A review and Discussion, Paper in Natural Resources, University of Nebraska-Lincoln.

Estrela, T., Fidalgo, A., Pérez, M. (2006). Droughts and the European water framework directive: Implications on Spanish river basin districts, in Andreu, J., Rossi, G., Vagliasindi, F., Vela, A. (eds), Drought Management and Planning for Water Resources, Taylor & Francis Group, ISBN 1 56670 672 6, pp 169-191.

Gibbs, J., Maher, V. (1967). Rainfall deciles as drought indicators, Bureau of Meteorology Bulletin, No. 48, Austrália, Melbourne, 1967.
Green, C. (2003). Handbook of Water Economics, ISBN 0471985716.

Hayes, M., Svoboda, M., Lecomte, D., Redmond, K., Pasteris, P. (2005). Drought Monitoring: New tools for the 21st Century, inWilhite, D. (ed.), Drought and Water Crises – Science, Technology and Management issues, Taylor &Francis, ISBN 084727711, pp53-69.

Heim Jr, R. (2002). A review of Twentieth-Century Drought Indices used is the United States, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, EUA, pp. 1149-1165.

Kraemer, R. (2007). Economic Impact of Droughts: Challenges for Water & Environmental Policies, Water Scarcity and Drought - a Priority of the Portuguese Presidency, Ministério do Ambiente, Ordenamento do Território e Desenvolvimento Reg., ISBN 978-989-8097-08-8.

MAGRAMA (2014). Homepage de Ministerio de Agricultura, Alimentación y Medio Ambiente, disponível em: http://www.magrama.es/.

Maia, R., Vivas, E., Serralheiro, R., Carvalho, M., (2013). Socioeconomic evaluation of drought effects. Main principles and application to Guadiana and Algarve case studies, 8th International Conference of EWRA, Porto, 26 a 29 de junho.

Mysiak, J., Markandya, A. (2010). The economic costs of drought, Options Mediterranéenes, A no 95.

NDMC (2014). The US Drought Monitor Map, National Drought Mitigation Center, disponível em: http://www.drought.unl.edu/.

NIDIS (2014). US Drought Portal, National Integrated Drought Information System, disponível em: http://www.drought.gov.

Palmer, W. (1965). Meteorologic Drought, US Weather Bureau, Research Paper 45, 65pp.

Palmer, W. (1968). Keeping track of crop moisture conditions nationwide: the new Crop Moisture Index, Weatherwise,21, pp 156-161.

Prieto, M. (2005). Drought and Water Stress Situations in Spain, in Wilhite, D. (ed.), Drought and Water Crises – Science, Technology and Management issues, Taylor & Francis, ISBN 0 847 2771 1, pp 3-29.

Rouse, W., Haas, H., Schell, A., Deering, W., (1973). Monitoring the vernal advancement and retrogradation (green wave effect) of natural vegetation. Prog.Rep. RSC 1978-1, Remote Sensing Center, Texas A&M Univ., College Station, 93p.

Steinemann, A., Cavalcanti, L. (2006). Developing Multiple Indicators and Triggers for Drought Plans, Journal of Water Resources Planning & Management, Vol. 132, No. 3, May.

Steinemann, A., Hayes, M; Cavalcanti, L. (2005). Drought Indicators and Triggers, in Wilhite, D. (ed), Drought and Water Crises: Science, Technology and Management Issues, CRC press - Taylor &Francis group, ISBN: 0-847-2771-1, pp.71-92.

Svoboda, M., Lecomte, D., Hayes, M., Heim, R., Gleason, K., Angel, J., Rippey, B., Tinker, R., Palecki, M., Stooksboury, D., Miskus, D., Stephens, S. (2002). The Drought Monitor, Bulletim of the American Meteorological Society, 83(8), pp 1181-1190.

Travis, W., Klein, R. (2012). Socioeconomic Impacts and Adaptation Strategies: Assessing Research on Quantification of Drought Impacts, White Paper, Western Water Assessment.

Tsakiris, G., Vangelis, H. (2005). Establishing a drought index incorporating evapotranspiration, European Water, 9/10, pp 3-11.

Valiñas, M. (2006). Analysing rationing policies: drought and its effects on urban users’ welfare, Applied Economics, Vol. 38, nº 8, pp 955-965.

Vicente-Serrano, S., Beguería, S., López-Moreno, J. (2010). A Multiscalar Drought Index Sensitive to Global Warming: The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, American Meteorological Society, Journal of Climate, 23, pp 1696-1718.

Vivas, E., (2011). Avaliação e Gestão de Situações de Seca e Escassez. Aplicação ao caso do Guadiana, Tese de Doutoramento, Faculdade de Engenharia da Universidade do Porto.

Vivas, E., Maia, R., (2013). Use of Economic valuation methods for estimation of drought effects on urban water supply systems. Application to a Portuguese drought prone area, 8th International Conference of EWRA, Porto, 26 a 29 de junho.
 
Ward, F., Booker, J., Michelsen, A. (2006). Integrated Economic, Hydrologic and Institutional Analysis of Policy responses to Mitigate Drought Impacts in Rio Grande Basin, Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, ASCE, Vol. 132, Nº6, pp 488-502.

Ward, F., Young, R., Lacewell, R., King, J., Frasier, M., McGuckin, J., DuMars, C., Booker, J., Ellis, J., Srinivasan, R. (2001). Institutional Adjustements for Coping with Prolonged and Severe Drought in the Rio Grande Basin, Technical Completion Report No. 317, New Mexico WRRI, Texas WRRI, Colorado WRRI.

Wilhite, D. (2009). Drought Monitoring as a Component of Drought Preparedness Planning – Chapter 1, in Iglesias, A., Garrote, L., Cancelliere, A., Cubillo, F., Wilhite, D. (eds), Coping with Drought Risk in Agriculture and Water Supply Systems, Advances in Natural and Technological Hazards Research 26, Springer, ISBN 978-1-4020-9044-8, pp 3-19.

Wilhite, D., Buchanan-Smith, M. (2005). Drought as Hazard: Understanding the Natural and Social Context, inWilhite, D. (ed.), Drought and Water Crises – Science, Technology and Management issues, Taylor & Francis, ISBN 0 847 2771 1, pp 3-29.

Wilhite, D., Svoboda, M., Hayes, M. (2007). Understanding the complex impacts of drought: A key to enhancing drought mitigation and preparedness, Water. Res. Man., 21, pp 763-774.

.