Título:
Models to predict the impact of the climate changes on aquifer recharge
Resumo:
Climate change is a statistically significant alteration of the climate variables in terms of their distribution both on time and in space. These changes will have a direct impact on the hydrologic system and an indirect impact on the quality of the surface and ground water resources. This paper deals with the impact of climate changes on groundwater recharge. Several models to estimate recharge are presented, among which the daily sequential water balance model reveals to be the most appropriate to attain this goal. Climate changes may be predicted using climate models. Average precipitation and temperature values are outputs of these models. For a case study area of north Portugal, theoretical forecasted precipitation and reference evapotranspiration series are used to study the impact of precipitation change in groundwater recharge. For a scenario of 70 % of actual precipitation, recharge would lower to 45% of the estimated actual recharge.
Autores:
J. P. Lobo Ferreira, Manuel Mendes Oliveira, Maria Emília Novo Oliveira