RGCI n499 - An assessment of relative potential impacts to Cyprus’ shoreline due to oil spills in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea

Revista de Gestão Costeira Integrada
Volume 23, Issue 1, June 2023, Pages 27-40

DOI: 10.5894/rgci-n499
*Submission: 31 JAN 2022; Peer review: 10 FEB 2022; Revised: 7 SEP 2023; Accepted: 7 SEP 2023; Available on-line: 7 FEB 2024

An assessment of relative potential impacts to Cyprus’ shoreline due to oil spills in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea

Nikolas Gomes Silveira de Souza^{@ 1}, Jader Lugon Jr.^{1, 2}, Edna N. Yamasaki³, Ioannis Kyriakides⁴, Antônio J. Silva Neto⁵

^@ Corresponding author: nichsouz@msn.com

¹ Fluminense Federal Institute (IFF-Campos), Brazil

² Email: jlugonjr@gmail.com

³ University of Nicosia(UNIC), Cyprus. Email: yamasaki.e@unic.ac.cy

⁴ University of Nicosia(UNIC), Cyprus. Email: kyriakides.i@unic.ac.cy

⁵ Polytechnic Institute (IPRJ), Brazil. Email: ajsneto@iprj.uerj.br

ABSTRACT
An oil spill occurrence is a concerning pervasive situation that can result in significant risk, depending on where it starts, the oil properties, and the environmental conditions. In the region of Cyprus, there is an intense traffic of shipping activities which intensifies the risk of an oil spill due to vessel density and prolongated permanence time. The purpose of this work is to obtain the relative potential impact in Cyprus by performing an assessment based on mathematical simulations to identify the critical places in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea, aiming at increasing the readiness for minimising the impact of an oil spill in sensitive areas, with attention to the atmosphere, hydrosphere, lithosphere, biosphere, and anthroposphere. This work simulated 384 scenarios using Mohid and Opendrift platforms with the same data input. The preliminary results presented significant impact in Cyprus’ western regions, mainly. However, after interpolating with history, sensitivity, distance, and two models, only three specific regions showed a potential relative impact. Though different platforms have been used, there were some equivalences in the predictions. Based on it, a new and more specific mathematical method was proposed to assess the potential relative impact of an oil spill in Cyprus, concluding that even with much more intense oil transport in other areas of the Eastern Mediterranean Sea, the most significant relative risks are in fact, in the areas surrounding Cyprus. In particular, the region in the south, east and west of Cyprus. It must be emphasised that the south of Cyprus is an important region for the economy of the country.

Keywords: Oil, Spill, Mohid, Opendrift, Risk, Assessment

RESUMO
Uma ocorrência de derramamento de óleo é uma situação comum e preocupante que pode resultar em um risco significante, dependendo de onde iniciou, as características do óleo e as condições ambientais. Na região do Chipre, há um intenso tráfego de atividades de transporte marítimo o qual intensifica o risco de um vazamento de óleo dada a densidade de embarcações e tempo de permanência prolongado. O objetivo deste trabalho é de se obter o impacto potencial relativo no Chipre através de uma avaliação, baseada em simulações matemáticas a fim de identificar os pontos críticos no Mar Mediterrâneo Oriental, buscando aumentar a preparação para minimização de impactos de um vazamento de óleo em áreas sensíveis, atento a temas de atmosfera, hidroesfera, litoesfera, biosfera e antroposfera. Este trabalho simulou 384 cenários usando as plataformas MOHID e Opendrift, usando os mesmos dados de entrada. Os resultados preliminares apresentaram impactos significativos à região mais oriental do Chipre, principalmente. Contudo, após interpolação com dados históricos, sensibilidade e dois modelos, apenas três regiões específicas ofereceram impacto relativo considerável. Foi observado que mesmo em diferentes plataformas, houve equivalência de resultados. Baseado nestas equivalências, um método matemático novo e mais específico foi proposto para avaliar o impacto relativo potencial de um vazamento de óleo no Chipre, concluindo que, mesmo com maior intensidade no transporte de óleo em outras áreas do Mar Mediterrâneo Oriental, os riscos relativos mais significantes foram, de fato, nas áreas próximas ao Chipre. Especificamente, na região ao sul, leste e oeste do Chipre. Deve-se esclarecer que ao sul do Chipre, há uma região importante para a economia do País.

Palavras-chave: Petróleo, Vazamento, Mohid, Opendrift, Risco, Avaliação

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Volume 23, Issue 1 - June 2023

An assessment of relative potential impacts to Cyprus’ shoreline due to oil spills in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea